Experts predict ‘above average’ hurricane season in 2022 – Forbes Advisor


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After an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season in 2022. NOAA predicts 14 to 21 named storms, including three to six major hurricanes.

“Major hurricanes” are Category 3, 4, or 5 and have sustained winds of 111 mph or greater based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Major hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage that can cause widespread power outages and render residential areas uninhabitable for days or even months.

The 2022 hurricane season is the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA says there’s a 65% chance of an above-normal season, 25% chance of a near-normal season, and 10% chance of a below-normal season.

This year is expected to see increased activity due to several climatic factors, including:

  • the girl
  • Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
  • Weaker Atlantic tropical trade winds
  • A stronger West African monsoon

The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but hurricanes and severe storms can form before or after.

Colorado State University also predicts an active hurricane season

Colorado State University (CSU) predicts the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average. The team predicts 18 named storms and four major hurricanes there. That’s down slightly from the June forecast, when the team predicted a “well above average” season with 19 named storms and four major hurricanes. This forecast includes storms named Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, which formed in the Atlantic beginning August 3, 2022.

CSU bases its hurricane season forecast on models that use 40 years of historical data and assesses conditions, including:

  • El Nino
  • Sea surface temperatures
  • Sea level pressures
  • Vertical wind shear levels (change in speed and direction of winds with height in the atmosphere)
  • Other factors

The CSU team cites the likely absence of El Niño as the primary reason for the “above average” hurricane season. When El Niño is present in the Pacific, its wind shear force can literally shatter hurricanes that form in the Caribbean and Atlantic.

Activity for the 2022 hurricane season will be about 130% of an average season, according to the CSU forecast. Last year’s hurricane season saw about 140% of the average season.

This year’s hurricane season has similar characteristics to those of 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021. All had above-average hurricane activity, according to Phil Klotzbach, a researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the report.

How accurate are hurricane season forecasts?

To calculate the accuracy of hurricane season forecasts, we measure the first NOAA and CSU forecasts to actual storms and hurricanes at the end of the year. NOAA held more accurate predictions, but they use a predicted range, rather than the single number offered by Colorado State University.

How to prepare for hurricane season

Hurricane preparedness can protect your family and property. Here are FEMA’s hurricane season preparedness recommendations:

  • Prepare to evacuate. Have a “duffle bag” with medicine and clothing, stock up on emergency supplies, like a first aid kit and flashlights, secure a place to stay, and research your local evacuation routes.
  • Protect your home. Reinforce and secure your walls, doors, roof and windows. Secure lightweight outdoor items, such as patio furniture and planters. If you can’t carry an item inside, secure it with an anchor.
  • Sign up for local alerts and warnings. Sign up to receive texts, calls and emails to warn you of a hurricane. You might want to get a NOAA weather radio.
  • Protect important documents. Use a waterproof container to store all financial documents, insurance cards, medical records, passports, birth certificates and other legal documents.
  • Have emergency contacts. It is recommended that you have an out-of-state emergency contact, as well as up-to-date contact information for work, school, doctors, non-emergency police, family members, and physicians.

FEMA recommends that you follow local authorities’ instructions in the event of a hurricane. If your local authority advises an evacuation, be sure to grab your ‘duffle bag’ and leave immediately. Also, follow these steps to stay safe:

  • Stay away from the area until authorities declare it safe.
  • Dial 911 to help yourself or another person in danger.
  • Be careful in strong winds: stay away from windows and go to the lowest level of an interior room.
  • Avoid open or flooded roads or in water. To learn more about what to do before the next hurricane, read how to prepare for the next hurricane.

Hurricane Insurance

Below are ways to navigate insurance for hurricane season.

Hurricane insurance for your home

Hurricane damage is caused by both wind and water; To be properly covered by hurricane insurance, you may need two or three insurance policies.

  • Flood insurance. Standard home insurance policies exclude flooding from the list of covered perils. You need flood insurance to cover most water damage caused by flooding. Many people are insured through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), but you can find private insurers in your area.
  • Home insurance. Although a standard home insurance policy won’t cover flooding, it will likely cover some types of water damage caused by hurricanes. For example, your home insurance probably covers damage to your home if the wind from a hurricane damages your roof, allowing rainwater to enter the house.
  • Wind insurance. In 19 states, home insurance policies have a hurricane deductible ranging from 1% to 10% of the home’s insured value. To better understand this, if your home is insured for $400,000 and your hurricane deductible is 5%, the insurer will deduct $20,000 from a claim check. This is the part that is your responsibility. You may want, or may need to purchase a separate windstorm and hail policy, an endorsement to your current home insurance policy, or obtain wind coverage through the Beach or FAIR plan of your state.

Hurricane insurance for vehicles

Full coverage covers damage from hurricanes, winds and rain. This type of auto insurance is sometimes called “non-collision” insurance and covers damage to your vehicle that is not caused by a collision, including vandalism, fire, falling debris, theft, and collisions with animals.

According to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), the national average premium for comprehensive insurance is $172 per year.

Find the best home insurance companies of 2022

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